After a successful 2023, the New Zealand triathlon squad are bubbling nicely ahead of the Olympic Games. With a defending individual medallist and a promising relay, they could potentially contend for multiple medals in Paris this summer.
New Zealand are forecasted to take two slots for each gender. Their slots are all but guaranteed through the Mixed Team Relay which makes individual qualification somewhat moot. Securing a third athlete for either gender seems like a bit of a long shot right now. None of the New Zealand women are ranked in the top-30 of the Olympic Qualification rankings (when three would be required). Meanwhile, they also only have one man with a top-30 slot.
Nevertheless, with a team of two men and two women, the country can start the year with plenty of optimism.
Who has been selected already?
The critical point to satisfy in the New Zealand selection policy was the achievement of a top-3 finish at the Paris Test Event. However, no one from the country managed to meet this criterion. A pre-race bike crash stopped Hayden Wilde from completing the event when he realistically stood the best shot of meeting the first priority clause.
Selection therefore rolls to the second point in the criteria. On this front, one man and one woman should have locked in their places.
The achievement of two top-8 finishes at Nomination Events (essentially WTCS races or the Test Event) in the qualifying window will put an athlete on the team. Wilde ticks this box having won four WTCS medals in 2023 alone. On the women’s side, Nicole Van Der Kaay should have inked her name on the team courtesy of her 6th place at WTCS Hamburg and 8th place at WTCS Sunderland.
Who could take the remaining slots?
Women
No one else has a top-8 WTCS finish in the Olympic Qualification Period and so Van Der Kaay can be confident that two women will not usurp her. Given there are only three WTCS races left in the qualifying window, it will be a stretch for anyone to step up.
As a result, we can turn to the third and final phase in the selection policy. This is entirely discretionary with the Mixed Team Relay primarily in mind. Ultimately, priority will go to any athlete that the selectors feel can help the Mixed Team Relay to a top-8 finish in Paris or that can achieve a top-16 finish individually.
One name stands out as an option on the women’s side.
Ainsley Thorpe is the top ranked New Zealand women in the Olympic rankings, beating out Van Der Kaay. Moreover, she won a World Cup medal behind her teammate in New Plymouth last year. The key for Thorpe, though, is the relay.
She helped New Zealand to the silver medal at the Mixed Team Relay World Championships in Hamburg last summer. Although France were missing and the British team was not at full strength, the medal showed that New Zealand will be a contender for the podium in Paris. Having played a key role in the relay, Thorpe will likely get her shot in Paris.
Brea Roderick did participate in the relay at the Test Event in Paris and could push Thorpe close. Being an U23 athlete, though, Roderick will probably get her shot at a future Games.
Men
As with the women, no second New Zealand man has a top-8 WTCS finish in the Olympic Qualification Period. However, the race between the two likeliest contenders for the second spot will be extremely tight.
Dylan McCullough and Tayler Reid each won a World Cup silver medal in 2023. Reid’s came at a home race in New Plymouth where he beat McCullough head-to-head. However, McCullough had better form away from home, claiming his medal in Miyazaki, and added two further 4th place World Cup finishes. In addition, McCullough is the younger athlete and could have more scope to improve before the Olympics.
On the WTCS front, McCullough finished 12th in Sunderland and 14th in Montreal. His form last year has also made him the second ranked New Zealand man in the Olympic Qualification rankings (standing in 32nd place). At the same time, Reid finished 11th in Hamburg.
One thing to note is Reid’s 11th place came in the Super Sprint eliminator while McCullough’s best WTCS results were over the Sprint distance. The selectors will likely have to make a judgement call as to which is more relevant.
Reid and McCullough both raced in the Mixed Team Relay in Paris. However, as the event was converted into a duathlon it has reduced utility. In Hamburg, Reid took on the relay duties alongside Wilde after his better WTCS performance. As the Wilde-Reid axis has been a staple for the relay for a few years, Reid has therefore built up a degree up of trust.
The margins between the two are fine and the World Cup/Mixed Team Relay event in Napier in February will likely prove decisive. Given the time invested in making Reid a part of the relay, though, it seems unlikely that he will be discarded at the final stage.
